Diante da redução da estimativa para o crescimento do PIB em 2025 de 2,5% para 2,3% pelo Ministério da Fazenda, especialistas avaliam que o recuo da projeção reflete uma política fiscal expansionista sem contrapartidas econômicas. Além disso, a atuação também exige que o Banco Central tenha uma política monetária contracionista, com a taxa de juros elevada.
Segundo a pasta, a revisão do percentual está relacionada a “sinais de desaceleração” da atividade econômica.
Os dados compõem o Boletim MacroFiscal, feito pela Secretaria de Política Econômica da Fazenda.
O economista-chefe da Genial Investimentos José Márcio de Camargo afirma que a redução da projeção decorre da perda de fôlego da economi
“O Ministério da Fazenda reduziu a projeção de crescimento do PIB porque começa a ficar cada vez mais claro que a economia brasileira está desacelerando. A razão pela qual isso está acontecendo está relacionada ao fato de que o governo tem uma política fiscal bastante expansionista, com um déficit público bastante elevado e crescendo substancialmente todos os anos”, afirma.
Já o professor de Ciências Econômicas da Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie e pesquisador do Centro Mackenzie de Liberdade Econômicas (MackLiber), Allan Gallo, salienta que a queda da projeção da economia não é apenas um número.
Segundo Gallo, as consequências podem atingir não apenas o setor produtivo de forma negativa, mas também a população brasileira.
“Quando você diminui a atividade econômica, além de você penalizar o setor produtivo, as pessoas que consomem e as empresas têm menos espaço para arrecadação, você está danificando a base de arrecadação, que vai significar mais pressão sobre o déficit, que está aumentando, e consequentemente, você vai ter juros mais altos por mais tempo. É um ciclo da morte, um ciclo vicioso. O governo gasta mal, o déficit sobe, o Banco Central responde com juros elevados e o PIB cresce menos”, aponta.
Irresponsabilidade fiscal
Para Gallo, o governo Lula mantém uma política de gastos elevados que limita o crescimento de longo prazo: “Quando a política fiscal é expansionista e desordenada, que é o caso do governo atual, a política monetária tem que ser mais contra-economista. Quem estuda um pouco de macroeconomia sabe que nesse cenário, juros elevados e gastos em excesso, o resultado é um crescimento menor. Não tem como sustentar um crescimento a longo prazo”, afirma Gallo.
Na avaliação dele, a falta de responsabilidade econômica na gestão reflete em custos de consumo.
“Isso é o típico caso em que a irresponsabilidade fiscal se traduz diretamente no custo social, mas não adianta dizer que não se come PIB – como as pessoas às vezes as pessoas maldosamente falam – porque diminui a produtividade, diminui o padrão de vida das pessoas. Não é uma questão apenas do alto empresariado, é uma questão da pessoa que está lá na ponta, na base da pirâmide mesmo, que tem o seu consumo prejudicado”, pondera Gallo.
Já José Márcio de Camargo diz que o aspecto importante desse processo é o excesso de gastos. “No caso do Brasil, não apenas a quantidade de gastos é muito elevada, como a qualidade dos gastos é muito ruim, ou seja, você tem gastos elevados e ao mesmo tempo com uma qualidade bastante ruim, então é certo”, destaca Camargo.
Impactos sociais
Segundo Gallo, o governo falha ao “gastar muito e gastar mal, sem ajustar as despesas obrigatórias”. Para ele, esse cenário cria um ambiente de estagnação econômica.
“Não é uma surpresa que o PIB tenha sido revisado para baixo, que o ambiente criado é de estagnação induzida pela própria política econômica do governo”, avalia Gallo.
Segundo ele, o tarifaço imposto pelo presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, ao Brasil, não explica sozinho o recuo da projeção do PIB. “No nosso caso aqui, o maior peso vem de dentro, que o governo insiste em políticas de gastos sem algum tipo de contrapartida e isso acaba minando a credibilidade do arcabouço fiscal.”
Já Camargo destaca que, como o Banco Central tende a manter a Selic alta, acarreta em impactos para a sociedade.
“Isso significa que o custo dessa política fiscal extremamente expansionista é uma política monetária também muito contracionista e extremamente cara para a sociedade brasileira em termos do custo para manter a inflação na meta”, pontua Camargo.
Motivos da desaceleração da atividade econômica
Conforme o Boletim MacroFiscal, a atividade tem mostrado sinais de desaceleração no país. “O PIB do segundo trimestre revelou moderação no crescimento de atividades cíclicas e contribuição negativa da absorção doméstica para o crescimento. O ritmo de expansão das concessões de crédito tem se reduzido, junto com o aumento nas taxas de juros bancárias e na inadimplência. Embora a taxa de desemprego siga no menor patamar da série histórica, já se percebe uma tendência de desaceleração na expansão da massa de rendimentos real”, diz um trecho da publicação.
O Boletim informa que esse o desaquecimento da atividade econômica está associado à política monetária restritiva, Segundo o documento, a ação acarreta na desaceleração do crédito – considerando a taxa de juros básica em 15% ao ano.
Entre os motivos do recuo da atividade, a publicação também aponta que o mercado de trabalho também demonstra sinais de desaquecimento. “Apesar da taxa de desemprego ainda estar em 5,8%, no mínimo histórico, o ritmo de expansão tanto da população ocupada como da força de trabalho tem desacelerado na comparação interanual”, diz o boletim.
A expectativa para o próximo trimestre é de que a desaceleração da atividade continue, de acordo com o Ministério da Fazenda.
Fonte: Brasil 61
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